Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund MARCH 2026 Overview

peRFORMANCE METRICS

Quarter End Performance
as of 03/31/2026

 NAVOne
Month
Three
Month
Year
To
Date
One
Year
Since
Inception
Dynamic Alpha
Macro Fund
14.22-12.28%4.10%4.10%26.05%20.10%
S&P 500
Index TR
 -4.98%-4.33%-4.33%17.80%15.70%
S&P Target
Risk Balanced
Index TR
 -4.54%-0.98%-0.98%14.87%11.04%

* Expense Ratio is 1.81%.
* Fund inception was 7/31/2023.
Performance data shown represents past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Updated performance information and daily net asset value per share (“NAV”) is available at no cost by calling toll-free 1-833-462-6433.

Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund March 2026 Overview pie chart for March 2026 market commentary (YouTube) shows overall strategy allocation within this macro fund overview: Global Macro 49.2%, Dividend Equities 19.3%, Core Equities 19.1%, Growth Equities 12.1%, and Cash 0.3%. The monthly market summary (YouTube) supports a global macro outlook by illustrating a portfolio mix tilted toward Global Macro with diversified equity exposure. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

Contributors                                        

  • Long: Corn, oil
  • Short: E-Mini Nasdaq 100

Detractors

  • Long: 10-Year Treasury, 2-Year Treasury, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Copper, Japanese Yen, Strategic Equities
  • Short: Coffee, Live Cattle

Current Positions (as of 3/31/2026)

  • Long: 2-Year Treasury, Corn, Strategic Equities
  • Short: E-Mini NASDAQ 100, Live Cattle

MACRO OBSERVATIONS AND MARKET ANALYSIS

This Month’s Performance

A terrible month

We had a terrible month; there’s no sugar coating it.

We have been reading as much as we can about the outbreak of war in the Middle east, the potential impact both near-term on the price of oil and longer-term on downstream markets for fertilizer, aluminum, and others – many of which will be impacted for many months. We did not allow any of our fundamental analysis of the linkages between the war and the impact on growth and inflation expectations – or any other economic variables – to impact our trading this month.

In a month like March, we rely solely on technical analysis and put fundamental analysis aside when it comes to decision making. We simply cut risk, multiple times.

We reduced exposure in four waves during the month:

  • We closed out one-quarter of our bond position mid-month, closed out part of our US dollar short (via long Japanese yen), and closed out our profits in crude oil (one of our only winning positions this month)
  • We trimmed another quarter of our bond position a few days later, along with our copper position and half of our British pound position
  • We trimmed yet another quarter of our bond position a few days hence
  • We finally closed out our bond position fully in the third week of the month, as rates continued to rise

All in all, we reduced our gross exposure by 75-80% (on the global macro side) over the course of the month. In doing so, we followed the time-tested rules of classic discretionary macro: reduce exposure in a drawdown, focusing only on price action and ignoring any fundamental viewpoints. Although we strive to keep single months below a -10% loss (for the global macro half), months like March have happened in the past and will surely happen again.

Crude oil

We won’t offer our thoughts on where oil will trade in the days and weeks ahead; we have no idea.  As many commentators have noted, now that floating oil on water has been drawn down, oil could easily head to $200 if the war escalates. Oil will likely stay high in the months ahead. It’s also possible that a recession-driven reduction in demand is needed to bring prices down.

We did not profit handsomely from our long oil trade. Our thesis for being long oil was predicted on a slow, multi-year bull market in oil, driven by underappreciated demand, particularly in EM countries, relative to the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) bearish forecasts.

Why didn’t we profit much? Our positioning on the oil futures curve, where we held a position long the December 2026 contract, explains everything. When the war broke out, markets expected a quick resolution, lifting the front of the curve (the March and April contracts) by much more than the further out contracts.

Crude oil curve: late Feb to mid-March

US Crude WTI futures term structure comparison in the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund March 2026 Overview shows the 3/16/26 curve well above the 2/27/26 curve, with front-month prices near $90 versus about $68 before both curves trend lower toward the mid-$60s by 2030. This chart supports the March 2026 market commentary (YouTube) and global macro outlook by illustrating the oil price shock and changing energy market expectations within the macro fund overview. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

Source: Bloomberg

Although we don’t have a view on near-term prices, the war increases the chance of a global recession over the coming 6-12 months. Were that to occur, leading to a meaningful correction in the price of oil, we would look to reestablish our position.

Looking forward

Forward looking thoughts that are top of mind for us:

  • Equity markets traded in a narrow range throughout March, mainly due to aggressive purchases of downside protection via options by both retail and professional investors, pinning prices in a range due to dealer hedging. This is not sustainable for long. Equity markets feel the way they did in fall 2007, as they hit an all-time high despite increasing signs of credit stress in subprime mortgages; more recently equity markets also ignored the onset of Covid-19 for two months before adjusting downward viciously in March 2020. It feels as though broad equity indices are similarly sleepwalking and ignoring coming storms that they will ultimately be forced to price in.
  • Ironically, even though we removed our entire bond position during the month for risk management purposes, our fundamental conviction in our view that rates will drop has increased over the month. Markets have strangely priced in no hit to economic growth, and a large bump up in inflation. We see a recession brewing, and a Fed that is now trapped into holding firm on rates due to the damage to their reputation from missing the inflation outbreak in 2021-2022. This increases the odds that the Fed will have to panic cut rates as growth stumbles later this year. We will carefully reload this theme if the price action validates our thesis on rates.
  • Precious metals have endured a sharp correction in March. Online commentators speculate that Gulf countries have been selling to raise cash to fund defense and rebuilding of infrastructure; this sounds a bit extreme. More likely, margin calls and degrossing by large CTAs and pod shops caused the sell-offs, as firms closed out profitable positions, raising cash and reducing margin use. We continue to believe that gold is in the early stages of a decade long secular bull market and will look to reload our precious metals position as the year progresses.

Current portfolio

Given the large reduction in exposure, our portfolio has been pared back to the following:

[1] Short U.S. dollar. The dollar rallied a bit in March, due to its usual safe haven characteristics. But what surprised us was how tepid that rally was. Global pools of capital likely can’t view the U.S. as a credible, rational safe haven any longer. The need to rebalance portfolios away from the U.S. continues. We remain long the British pound and the Canadian dollar.

[2] Short large cap U.S. equities. We continue to hold our short Nasdaq 100 futures position and look to add to it in the months ahead, as equities appear increasingly disconnected from both the state of the U.S. economy, where cracks in credit are appearing, as well as the medium-term impacts from the war in the Middle East.

[3] Long corn and short live cattle. These uncorrelated, diversifying positions still appear fundamentally and technically sound to us.

Fertilizer price shock

Granular urea futures price chart in the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund March 2026 Overview shows percent change since the beginning of the Iran war, with prices moving from roughly negative 16% in January to flat by late February, then jumping sharply after Feb. 27, 2026 to about 35% by March. This visual supports the March 2026 market commentary (YouTube) and global macro outlook by highlighting a key agriculture input shock discussed in the macro fund overview and monthly market summary (YouTube). Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

Source: CME, BCA Research

The price of urea, which impacts nitrogen-based fertilizer and is applied heavily to corn, has jumped massively in recent weeks, at the worst possible time, as farmers in the northern hemisphere prepare for planting and application.

The price of oil affects farming globally, as an input into both fuel for tractors and fertilizer. If less fertilizer is used this season, alongside a shift toward soybean acreage (which uses less fertilizer than corn), corn’s nascent bull market could accelerate.

Cattle prices continue to form a large technical top, as underlying cash prices for beef trade sideways – this holding pattern will likely break soon. Consumers are increasingly stretched and will shift toward cheaper pork and chicken. We are on the cusp of demand destruction for red meat; we remain short cattle.

It’s never enjoyable to write a letter after a tough month, but we remain fully confident in how our views will transpire over the remainder of 2026.

As always, we remain nimble. If the data and/or our views change, we can pivot our positioning and find other trades within the 40+ markets we have available. This is also why we maintain a strategic allocation to U.S. equities in our overall fund strategy, balancing a buy-and-hold approach with active global macro long and short positions.

We Are Here To Help

We appreciate your continued trust and partnership and look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming months. Please feel free to reach out if we can provide additional clarification on specific ideas or the portfolio more broadly.

If you are a financial advisor and would like more information on our multi-dimensional approach towards asset management, you can download our white paper titled Busting Seven Risk and Return Myths by visiting our website at DynamicWG.com, or email us at info@DynamicWG.com. If you are an individual investor, we are happy to address any questions you may have and put you in touch with a qualified advisor, if so desired.


Business professional reviewing notes in front of market screens labeled Crude Oil, NASDAQ 100, 10-Year Treasury Yield, Gold, and Corn for the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund March 2026 Overview. This branded visual supports March 2026 market commentary (YouTube), a global macro outlook, and a monthly market summary (YouTube) focused on oil price shock, Treasury yield outlook, Nasdaq 100 outlook, gold market outlook 2026, and corn price outlook. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

EQUITY INDICESENERGYMETALS
E-mini NASDAQ
E-Mini Russell 2000
E-mini S&P 500
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI EM Index
Nikkei 225
Crude oil
Natural gas
NY Harbor ULSD
RBOB Gasoline
Copper
Gold
Palladium
Platinum
Silver

INTEREST RATESCURRENCYAGRICULTURE
SOFR
2-year Treasury note
5-year Treasury note
10-year Treasury note
30-Year Treasury
Australian dollar
Brazilian Real
British pound
Canadian dollar
Euro
Japanese yen
Mexican peso
New Zealand dollar
Swiss Franc
Cocoa
Coffee
Corn
Cotton
Feeder cattle
Lean hogs
Live cattle
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Sugar #11
Wheat

The list above is not all inclusive.


Disclaimers:

Dynamic Alpha Approach diagram: a circle split into Strategic Equity (growth, broad market, and dividend) and Fundamental Macro (currencies, equities, bonds, energies, metals, and agriculture), combined to pursue Dynamic Alpha. This image was posted by Dynamic Alpha Funds https://www.DynamicAlphaFunds.com
Morningstar 5-Star Overall Rating seal awarded to the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund (DYMIX). This image was posted by Dynamic Alpha Funds https://www.DynamicAlphaFunds.com

Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund Institutional Class (DYMIX)

Received a 5-Star Overall Morningstar Rating™.

The Overall Morningstar Rating™ is based on the Fund’s risk-adjusted performance among 37 Macro Trading funds for the three-year period ended September 30, 2026.

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