Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund February 2026 Overview

peRFORMANCE METRICS

Month End Performance
as of 02/28/2026
NAVOne
Month
Three
Month
Year
To
Date
One
Year
Since
Inception
Dynamic Alpha
Macro Fund
16.213.71%21.64%18.67%47.11%27.14%
S&P 500
Index TR
-0.76%0.74%0.68%16.99%18.60%
S&P Target
Risk Balanced
Index TR
1.65%4.24%3.72%17.82%13.46%
Quarter End Performance
as of 12/31/2025
NAVOne
Month
Three
Month
Year
To
Date
One
Year
Since
Inception
Dynamic Alpha
Macro Fund
13.662.51%2.29%25.36%25.36%20.37%
S&P 500
Index TR
0.06%2.66%17.88%17.88%19.62%
S&P Target
Risk Balanced
Index TR
0.50%2.45%16.59%16.59%12.71%

* Expense Ratio is 1.81%.
* Fund inception was 7/31/2023.
Performance data shown represents past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Updated performance information and daily net asset value per share (“NAV”) is available at no cost by calling toll-free 1-833-462-6344.

Pie chart titled Overall Strategy Allocation showing Global Macro at 46.9%, Cash at 5.6%, Growth Equities at 18.5%, Core Equities at 10.6%, and Dividend Equities at 18.4%, illustrating portfolio diversification and strategic asset allocation in Dynamic Wealth Group’s February 2026 market commentary. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

Contributors                                        

  • Long: 10-Year Treasury, 2-Year Treasury, Canadian Dollar, Copper, Corn, Oil, Strategic Equities
  • Short: Coffee, E-Mini NASDAQ 100, Live Cattle                                            

Detractors                                    

  • Long: British Pound, Japanese Yen                                        
  • Short: none                                        

Current Positions (as of 2/28/2026)                                      

  • Long: 10-Year Treasury, 2-Year Treasury, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Copper, Corn, Oil, Strategic Equities                                         
  • Short: Coffee, E-Mini NASDAQ 100, Live Cattle

MACRO OBSERVATIONS AND MARKET ANALYSIS

This Month’s Performance

The Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund gained 3.71% for the month, outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index (-0.76%) and building on the Fund’s strong momentum coming out of 2025. Performance was driven by a broad mix of non-correlated return sources across the global macro sleeve, complemented by our strategic U.S. equity allocation. This is exactly the outcome our dual-strategy framework is designed to pursue, equity-like returns without relying on the same risk drivers as traditional benchmarks.

In the discussion that follows, we outline the core themes driving current positioning, including the deep value opportunity emerging in grains, our view that AI-related CapEx is late-cycle and vulnerable over the next 12 to 18 months, and the longer-term implications of a world moving toward tighter capital controls.

Grains: deep value

Grains (corn, soybeans, and wheat) – alongside oil and the broader energy complex – are one of the few value investment opportunities remaining in the commodity space. After breaking out in 2022 in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prices have declined by 50% and have since lagged the broader commodity complex. Unlike other commodity markets, grains tend to exhibit cyclical rather than structural trends, as a new crop is planted each year. We are bullish grain futures on a 2–3-year time horizon and recently incepted a long position in corn. Our conviction is predicated on the following drivers:

Peak near-term supply growth in all major corn exporting areas of the world

Farming economics in the U.S. that imply acreage may be peaking domestically

[1] Peak supply growth

Corn production has surged post-2022, at first defying market expectations that the outbreak of war in Ukraine would prevent crops from being harvested, and later due to perfect growing weather in North and South America, alongside bumper yields per acre/hectare. Looking forward, it is difficult to see how corn production can continue to grow strongly in the years ahead. Powerhouse producer Brazil is increasing the pace of its corn-based ethanol production in line with increases in overall corn production, thereby preventing an excess overhang of corn that can be exported. Ukrainian supply has stagnated, and while China’s supply has grown sharply, its strategic imperative is a drive toward food self-sufficiency and as such its exports are de minimis, heading only to neighbors such as Vietnam and Uzbekistan.

Given these dynamics, our view is that the U.S. becomes the ‘global swing supplier’ in the next few growing seasons, fulfilling a role that Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold within the oil market. Growing conditions have been perfect in recent seasons, and planted acres will most likely contract from last year’s historic 99 million acres. An El Nino weather pattern likely arrives in spring 2026, driven by ocean temperatures that are warmer than average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can impact far reaching geographies. While higher initial rainfall from an El Nino can be beneficial to crops, the risk today arises from the lack of snowfall in the western part of the United States this winter – this snowpack is crucial for restoring water reserves that are depleted throughout the year.

[2] Farm economics: under pressure

The average age of a farmer in the U.S. is 58; over a third are 65 or older, overseeing nearly 40% of all U.S. farmland. More surprisingly, the average age of an early-stage farmer (defined as those with ten or fewer years of experience) is 47. Many farmers are struggling to find successors, as the next generation within the family declines to pursue the career.

Farmland acreage has fallen by 24% from 1950-2022, decreasing from 1,161 million acres to 880 million. Advancements in ag-tech have helped to offset stagnant crop prices through yield expansion, but we may be reaching the upper bounds of what farmers are able to produce as herbicide resistant ‘super weeds’ such as Palmer amaranth have been reported in all 48 contiguous states – these invasive weeds thrive amid row crops and can negatively impact corn and soybean yields by 80-90%.

The combination of low realized prices and higher input costs make the economics of farming the least attractive they have ever been.

U.S. farm production expenses

Line chart of U.S. farm production expenses from 1970 to 2026F, comparing nominal production expenses with inflation-adjusted production expenses in billions of dollars and showing a long-term rise in operating costs, highlighting cost pressure, inflation trends, and agricultural market conditions in Dynamic Wealth Group’s February 2026 market commentary. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Farm Income and Wealth Statistics

We may be reaching the upper bound of what farmers are able to produce per acre, as well as the upper bound on total acres farmed. From a balance sheet perspective, the average farmer is highly leveraged with both real estate and operating debt at the high end of historical ranges. According to USDA projections, total real estate debt outstanding will reach $404.3bn (+4% YoY) and non-real estate debt will hit $220.4bn (+6% YoY) in 2026. Loans are typically taken out at the beginning of the season to fund operations throughout the year, with repayment made at the harvest, leaving the difference as profit. In recent years, there has been an uptick of farmers carrying debts over into subsequent years, as the income they generate is insufficient to repay the debt, let alone make a profit.

The early 1980s were known as a time of farm crisis in America. In the graph at the bottom of the previous page, note that the orange, inflation-adjusted production expenses for farming are above the level that caused that crisis 45 years ago. Continued weakness in farming profitability will further incentivize exiting the industry all-together – in many cases the rise in property prices over the past ten years have made it more attractive to sell acres rather than farm them.

With global corn supply growth stagnating and farming economics adding pressure domestically, corn prices that are 50% off their highs look very attractive from a risk/reward perspective on a cyclical horizon.

Portfolio in February

Our portfolio can be bucketed in two ways: short-term vs long-term, and thematically.

[1] Short-term, deflationary AI Capex bust

Recent market price action has helped congeal our views on AI and the associated CapEx spend by the hyperscalers. The market’s putrid reaction to Oracle’s announced spending binge in H2 2025; Nvidia’s failure to rally in February after beating earnings and sales by a gargantuan amount; and continued strains in private credit all point to the slow, steady bubbling of a nascent CapEx bust. We believe this bust will reveal that actual sales and profits economy-wide do not exist to support AI spending, even as AI itself will likely increase productivity across the economy over the coming decades. Our preferred portfolio expression over the next 12-18 months combines long Treasuries across the curve, where we look for a parallel shift in yields lower, with a short position in the Nasdaq 100 futures contract. 

[2] Long-term, global capital controls

A geopolitically fracturing world with ageing populations and a need to boost military spending implies that the era of global capital mobility is easing, at least for the next handful of years. Sovereign and pension assets are overweight U.S. equities and bonds and will need to steadily rebalance for years to come. This outflow will cement a continued U.S. dollar secular bear market. We are long the British pound, Canadian dollar, and Japanese yen.

[3] Short-term, uncorrelated commodity trades

We continue to be short coffee, where weather in Brazil has been perfect with timely rains and a lack of extreme heat; a record crop this spring would end the scarcity pricing of the past few years. While supplies of cattle continue to remain tight, we note that the cash market for beef is no higher than nine months ago – our thesis that consumer demand is weakening due to the extremely high prices for red meat is slowly being validated. The Trump administration is laser focused on consumer complaints about inflation heading into the mid-term elections, which prompted them to open the domestic market to additional imports of Argentinian beef, despite the objections of American ranchers. If they re-open the border to Mexican cattle, a near-term supply increase will lend additional support to our bearish thesis. We are short live cattle futures.

[4] Long-term, cyclical and structural commodity bull markets

We outlined our view on corn earlier in this letter, where we see a cyclical (i.e. 2-3 year) bull market ahead. We also hold long positions in crude oil and copper, two heavy CapEx commodities where we see a structural (5+ year) bull market ahead, due to a lack of investment alongside continued global demand for – among other sources – aviation fuel, in the case of oil, and EVs and transmission/ grid infrastructure, in the case of copper.

As always, we remain nimble. If the data and/or our views change, we can pivot our positioning and find other trades within the 40+ markets we have available. This is also why we maintain a strategic allocation to U.S. equities in our overall fund strategy, balancing a buy-and-hold approach with active global macro long and short positions.

We Are Here To Help

We appreciate your continued trust and partnership and look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming months. Please feel free to reach out if we can provide additional clarification on specific ideas or the portfolio more broadly.

If you are a financial advisor and would like more information on our multi-dimensional approach towards asset management, you can download our white paper titled Busting Seven Risk and Return Myths by visiting our website at DynamicWG.com, or email us at info@DynamicWG.com. If you are an individual investor, we are happy to address any questions you may have and put you in touch with a qualified advisor, if so desired.


Professional portfolio manager in a modern investment office reviewing multi-screen dashboards with global macro charts, Treasury market outlook visuals, commodity investing trends, and market data for the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund February 2026 market outlook, reflecting active macro investing and a disciplined alternative investment strategy in this February 2026 market commentary. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

EQUITY INDICESENERGYMETALS
E-mini NASDAQ
E-Mini Russell 2000
E-mini S&P 500
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI EM Index
Nikkei 225
Crude oil
Natural gas
NY Harbor ULSD
RBOB Gasoline
Copper
Gold
Palladium
Platinum
Silver

INTEREST RATESCURRENCYAGRICULTURE
SOFR
2-year Treasury note
5-year Treasury note
10-year Treasury note
30-Year Treasury
Australian dollar
Brazilian Real
British pound
Canadian dollar
Euro
Japanese yen
Mexican peso
New Zealand dollar
Swiss Franc
Cocoa
Coffee
Corn
Cotton
Feeder cattle
Lean hogs
Live cattle
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Sugar #11
Wheat

The list above is not all inclusive.


Disclaimers:

Dynamic Alpha Approach diagram: a circle split into Strategic Equity (growth, broad market, and dividend) and Fundamental Macro (currencies, equities, bonds, energies, metals, and agriculture), combined to pursue Dynamic Alpha. This image was posted by Dynamic Alpha Funds https://www.DynamicAlphaFunds.com
Morningstar 5-Star Overall Rating seal awarded to the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund (DYMIX). This image was posted by Dynamic Alpha Funds https://www.DynamicAlphaFunds.com

Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund Institutional Class (DYMIX)

Received a 5-Star Overall Morningstar Rating™.

The Overall Morningstar Rating™ is based on the Fund’s risk-adjusted performance among 37 Macro Trading funds for the three-year period ended September 30, 2026.

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