Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund (DYMIX): October 2025 Overview

peRFORMANCE METRICS

* Expense Ratio is 1.81%.
* Fund inception was 7/31/2023.
Performance data shown represents past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Updated performance information and daily net asset value per share (“NAV”) is available at no cost by calling toll-free 1-833-462-6344.

Overall strategy allocation pie chart for the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund October 2025 performance, illustrating portfolio diversification across Global Macro at 47.9%, Cash at 3%, Growth Equities at 20.3%, Core Equities at 9.8%, and Dividend Equities at 18.7%. The chart visually supports the fund’s global macro strategy and balanced approach to risk management. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

Contributors                   

  • Long: Gold, Silver, Strategic Equities
  • Short: None

Detractors

  • Long: 2-Year Treasury, British Pound, Natural Gas, 10-Year Treasury
  • Short: Coffee, Life Cattle, E-Mini NASDAQ 100

Current Positions (as of 10/31/2025)

  • Long: 2-Year Treasury, 10-Year Treasury, British Pound, Natural Gas
  • Short: Coffee, Silver, Live Cattle

This Month’s Performance

The Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund declined -0.35% in October, lagging both the S&P 500 Total Return Index (+2.34%) and the S&P Target Risk Balanced Index (+1.48%). The modest pullback followed September’s double-digit gain (+10.22%) and reflected a shift in macro positioning as precious metals were trimmed and fixed income exposure increased. Performance was mixed: long positions in gold, silver, and strategic equities contributed early in the month, while long Treasury and British pound exposures detracted as rates and currencies reacted to shifting growth expectations.

The portfolio’s current stance emphasizes diversification across non-correlated themes, including a long theme in Treasuries and natural gas paired with select shorts in commodities such as coffee and live cattle. This combination expresses our view that a softening consumer, rising recession risks, and a potential AI-related CapEx bust may drive both lower yields and select commodity dislocations in the months ahead.

Following September’s strong advance, October’s flat return underscored our commitment to risk management and balance. Our dual-strategy framework continues to seek equity-like returns through a blend of U.S. equity exposure and an actively managed global macro book, positioned to capture diverse opportunities across 40 liquid markets while maintaining low correlation to traditional benchmarks.

A diversified portfolio

When finance undergrads first encounter the term diversification, it’s usually within the context of adding stocks to a broader portfolio to reduce single stock, or idiosyncratic risk. Once you reach 20-25 stocks – ideally equally weighted – you’ve generally mitigated the negative impact of any single stock and are left mainly with market risk.

Today, given the extent to which both U.S. and global equity markets are levitating based on the performance (market cap weighted) of 7 or so mega-cap U.S. tech stocks, most equity portfolios could easily fall 40-50% in a recessionary environment, taking years to recover. There’s nothing diversified about it.

In contrast, we currently hold what we believe to be a truly diversified portfolio:

#PositionDirectionOutlook
1.US 2Y Treasury NotesLongRecession accompanied by rapidly rising unemployment rate leads to aggressive Fed rate cuts
2.US 10Y Treasury NotesLongAI datacenter CapEx bust leads to brief deflationary period due to wealth destruction and spending downturn
3.Live CattleShortPinched US consumer / households cut back away from beef in-favor of cheaper meats (e.g., chicken, pork)
4.CoffeeShortImproving supply from Brazil as multi-quarter top emerges following false Oct. breakout on unfounded supply fears
5.British PoundLongContrarian view on a major currency that offers deep value and benefits from positive global (ex-U.S.) growth
6.SilverShortTechnical trade fading recent parabolic price spike and retail participation | uncorrelated
7.Natural GasLongStrong demand for use as a bridge fuel for U.S. datacenter expansion, and a positive play on economic growth

Except for the 2-year Treasury, our current positions are all starter-sized, allowing us to carefully add to some as they trend in our favor (or conversely, remove from others as they hit our pre-determined exit points).

Above, 2 and 7 are of particular interest. At first glance they appear to be in conflict. The former is tied to a negative outcome for AI hyperscalers, while the latter seems to benefit only if spending on datacenters continues. It’s certainly plausible that for one of these ideas to work, the other should fail. Yet, we see the possibility that natural gas prices rise due to continued datacenter build-outs while mega-cap tech stocks fall during a deflationary recession and 10-year yields plummet. Large tech stocks could re-price from 30x earnings to 15x, while management simultaneously doubles-down on AI-related spending, in what they perceive to be an existential, winner-take-all battle for compute. In fact, we see this as a very likely outcome.

The trades above have very different drivers, from a consumer-led pullback in household spending to recession with rising unemployment to a U.S. datacenter CapEx bust. Some are just plain non-correlated ideas; They offer real diversification.

Gold and the yield curve

Now for a quick note on gold and its lack of a cohesive message with the yield curve. Gold skyrocketed from $600 to $1,000 in 2007, just ahead of the Global Financial Crisis. It signaled an oncoming deflationary shock, not ‘debasement’ or inflation. Today, 5-year/5-year forward inflation breakevens, which are an estimate of expected inflation over the 5-year time period that begins 5 years from now, are disagreeing with the inflation/debasement thesis.

Breakevens: No signal of a looming inflationary crisis

Line chart titled “5-Year/5-Year Forward Breakeven Inflation Expectations” showing U.S. inflation expectations fluctuating between 1.8% and 2.8% from 2021 through 2025. The data indicates stable inflation outlooks with modest declines in late 2025, suggesting limited signs of a looming inflationary crisis. Source: BCA Research 2025. Dynamic Wealth Group posted this image. Visit https://www.DynamicWG.com.

Source: BCA Research

Much of the macro commentary we come across appears to have a bias in favor of a yield curve steepener (going long short rates, and short long rates). The thesis: continued labor market weakness and an economic downturn will lead to aggressive Fed rate cuts. All the while, the U.S. fiscal situation (and the way [MO1] long rates traded during Liberation Day in April) implies a continued rise in long-end yields. Thus, the steepener is considered to be the “safe” way to position for continued fiscal turmoil without taking on a directional view on rates. We respectfully disagree with the thesis outlined here and instead see a flattener as more appealing, as a recession triggered by a CapEx bust leads to falling yields across the curve.

The current focus on what Wall Street has dubbed the ‘debasement trade’ seems misplaced to us. Gold was fundamentally a screaming buy two years ago, when it barely hazarded a mention on the last page of the Wall Street Journal. With gold making front page headlines in recent weeks, the time for a meaningful correction has likely arrived.

We have trimmed our precious metals position and – given the extremely stretched technical positioning of the silver market – added a short position in silver.

Positioning in October

While our core themes remain consistent with past updates, the expression of our themes changed in October. Notably, we closed our long gold and long silver positions early in the month – after market exuberance pushed prices to our profit targets – and are now short silver. While we believe a multi-year bull market in metals lies ahead, silver’s move above $50 (for the 3rd time in history) provided an appealing opportunity to capture the pullback as sentiment resets in the months ahead. Elsewhere, we complimented our mild, disinflationary recession thesis by adding a long position in 10-year Treasury notes. With consumer confidence eroding and demand destruction resulting from a CapEx bust, we can envision rates falling further than expected out the curve, in addition to the front-end – hence the “curve flattener” (which is not duration matched).

We close with a parting thought, to note that the month’s changes were made proactively in anticipation of economic and correlation changes across markets. In contrast to our July update, the moves were not reactive nor were they spurred by a single event or risk-management. Our commitment is to constantly watch the markets, pressure test our hypotheses, and – when the fundamentals change – act on our best opportunities.



As always, we continue to be nimble. If the data and/or our views change, we can pivot our positioning and find other trades within the 40+ markets we have available. This is also why we maintain a strategic allocation to U.S. equities in our overall fund strategy, balancing a buy-and-hold approach with active global macro long/short positions. 

We Are Here To Help

We appreciate your continued trust and partnership and look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming months. Please feel free to reach out if we can provide additional clarification on specific ideas or the portfolio more broadly.

If you are a financial advisor and would like more information on our multi-dimensional approach towards asset management, you can download our white paper titled Busting Seven Risk and Return Myths by visiting our website at DynamicWG.com, or email us at info@DynamicWG.com. If you are an individual investor, we are happy to address any questions you may have and put you in touch with a qualified advisor, if so desired.


EQUITY INDICESENERGYMETALS
E-mini NASDAQ
E-Mini Russell 2000
E-mini S&P 500
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI EM Index
Nikkei 225
Crude oil
Natural gas
NY Harbor ULSD
RBOB Gasoline
Copper
Gold
Palladium
Platinum
Silver

INTEREST RATESCURRENCYAGRICULTURE
SOFR
2-year Treasury note
5-year Treasury note
10-year Treasury note
30-Year Treasury
Australian dollar
Brazilian Real
British pound
Canadian dollar
Euro
Japanese yen
Mexican peso
New Zealand dollar
Swiss Franc
Cocoa
Coffee
Corn
Cotton
Feeder cattle
Lean hogs
Live cattle
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Sugar #11
Wheat

The list above is not all inclusive.


Disclaimers:

Dynamic Alpha Approach diagram: a circle split into Strategic Equity (growth, broad market, and dividend) and Fundamental Macro (currencies, equities, bonds, energies, metals, and agriculture), combined to pursue Dynamic Alpha. This image was posted by Dynamic Alpha Funds https://www.DynamicAlphaFunds.com
Morningstar 5-Star Overall Rating seal awarded to the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund (DYMIX). This image was posted by Dynamic Alpha Funds https://www.DynamicAlphaFunds.com

Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund Institutional Class (DYMIX)

Received a 5-Star Overall Morningstar Rating™.

The Overall Morningstar Rating™ is based on the Fund’s risk-adjusted performance among 37 Macro Trading funds for the three-year period ended September 30, 2026.

Get Notified When New Commentaries are Released

You are now entering the
website
Continue